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Human Development Stages

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Demographic and Health Indicators for the 193 Countries of WHO

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Human Development Stages (US States, 1999-2001 males)

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Human Development Stages (US States, 1999-2001 females)

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Demographic and Human Development Indicators for Portugal

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A Quantitative Method for Estimating the Human Development Stages Based on the Health State Function Theory and the Resulting Deterioration Process 

Christos H Skiadas and Charilaos Skiadas

Abstract: The Health State Function theory is applied to find a quantitative estimate of the Human Development Stages by defining and calculating the specific age groups and subgroups. Early and late adolescence stages, first, second and third stages of adult development are estimated along with the early, middle and old age groups and subgroups. We briefly present the first exit time theory used to find the health state function of a population and then we give the details of the new theoretical approach with the appropriate applications to support and validate the theoretical assumptions. Our approach is useful for people working in several scientific fields and especially in medicine, biology, anthropology, psychology, gerontology, probability and statistics. The results are connected with the speed and acceleration of the deterioration of the human organism during age as a consequence of the changes in the first, second and third differences of the Health State Function and of the Deterioration Function.

Keywords: Human development stages, Deterioration, Deterioration function, Human Mortality Database, HMD, World Health Organization, WHO, Quantitative methods, Health State Function, Erikson's stages of psychosocial development, Piaget method, Sullivan method, Disability stages, Light disability, Moderate disability, Severe disability stage, Old ages, Critical ages.

Paper version sent to arXiv.org, 7 January 2013

http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1301/1301.1077.pdf 

The main Pictures and Tables of the Paper are presented herewith.

The method of estimating the health state function of a population the deterioration function and the first and second and third differences (derivatives) provided a method to estimate the Human Development Age Groups. The resulting applications in various countries supported the argument of characteristic age groups. The proposed human development age group selection and classification will be useful in scientific fields like medicine, sociology, biology, anthropology, psychology, gerontology, probability and statistics and many others. We provide a method to quantify the human development age groups thus giving reliable tools for further studies.

 

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Fig. 1. Health State, model fitting, stochastic paths, stochastic simulation for Greece, males, 1992

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Fig. 5. Health state function, first and second order differences

TABLE II
Females2000Human Development Age Groups by based on the Health State Function
CountryPre Adoles cenceEarly AdolescenceLate AdolescenceFirst Stage of Adult DevelopmentSecond Stage of Adult DevelopmentThird Stage of Adult DevelopmentEarly Middle AgesMiddle+ Old AgesVery Old Ages
USA 9-1313-1515-1717-2020-2323-3737-4242-8888-
UK 10-1313-1616-1818-2121-2525-3838-4343-8787-
Australia 10-1313-1616-1818-2121-2525-4141-4343-8989-
Canada 8-1010-1414-1616-2020-2424-4040-4343-8989-
Germany 10-1313-1616-1818-2121-2424-4040-4141-8888-
France 9-1111-1515-1616-1919-2323-4141-4545-9090-
Italy 8-1212-1616-1919-2424-3030-4141-4242-8989-
Japan 12-1515-1717-1919-2121-2424-4040-4646-9191-

Deterioration_function.jpg
Fig. 8. The Deterioration function and the three differences of this function

TABLE VII
Human Development Age Groups by based on the Deterioration Function for Males (2000) in several Countries
Age GroupsFirst Deterioration StageSecondDeterioration StageLight disabilitiesstageModerate & Severe disabilitiesstageOldAges(many disabilities)Very old ages (critical health) Critical ages (very critical health)
USA41-6060-6565-7474-8484-8989-100100-
UK41-5656-6060-7070-8383-8888-101101-
Australia39-5757-6262-7373-8282-8787-9999-
Canada 40-5757-6363-7272-8484-8888-100100-
Germany 40-5757-6262-7272-8383-8888-100100-
France 40-6060-6565-7474-8484-8888-9898-
Italy 40-5757-6262-7171-8383-8888-101101-
Japan 40-5858-6464-7373-8484-8888-100100-

TABLE VIII
 Human Development Age Groups by based on the Health State Function
MethodsPreAdoles cenceEarly AdolescenceLate AdolescenceFirst Stage of Adult DevelopmentSecond Stage of Adult DevelopmentThird Stage of Adult DevelopmentEarly MiddleAgesMiddle+OldAgesVery OldAges
Erikson's stagesCompetenceAdolescenceEarly adulthood*Adulthood (27-64), Old Ages (64-)
Sullivan’sPre-adolescenceEarly AdolescenceLate Adolescence      
Piaget’sConcrete OperationsFormal operational stage       
MalesUSA 20009-1313-1616-1919-2323-2727-3636-4646-8484-
FemalesUSA 20009-1313-1515-1717-2020-2323-3737-4242-8989-
* The correct group formation according to Erikson is found by using the deterioration function group classification. In this case there appear age groups close to 65 years (see Tables V, VI and VII for validation)

TABLE IX

  Human Development Age Groups based on the Health State Function and                               the Deterioration Function for USA (males and females)

Age Groups and Sub-Groups Pre Adoles cence

Adolescence

Adult Development

Middle Ages

Old Ages

Very Old & Critical Ages

Early Adoles cence

Late Adoles cence

First Stage of Adult Develop mentSecond Stage of Adult Develop mentThird Stage ofAdult Develop mentEarly Middle Ages First Deterio ration StageSecond Deterio ration StageLight disabilities stageModerate & Severe disabilities stageMany disabi lities stageVery old ages (critical health) Critical ages (very critical health)Highly Critical ages

MalesUSA 2000

9-13

13-16

16-19

19-23

23-27

27-36

36-46

46-60

60-65

65-74

74-84

84-89

89-100

100-108

108-

FemalesUSA 2000

9-13

13-15

15-17

17-20

20-23

23-37

37-42

42-61

61-66

66-75

75-85

85-89

89-100

100-108

108-

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